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The U.S. trade is expected to grow substantially

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Author : Bozhou Marine
Update time : 2021-04-12 12:30:32


On April 1, the World Trade Organization (WTO) stated that after the global trade in goods shrinks by 5.3% in 2020, it is expected to rebound from the impact of the epidemic and achieve a growth of up to 8% in 2021.

  North American Trade Explosion

The WTO said that the Biden government's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan will further stimulate demand, which will increase import demand in North America by 11.4% in 2021, which is higher than the 8% growth expected in Europe.

Most of the boost in demand will be satisfied and digested by the Asian region, which will increase exports in the Asian region by 8.4%, and most of the export growth in the Asian region will be digested by China.

According to estimates by Allianz Insurance Company, of Biden's $1.9 trillion in stimulus funds, $360 billion will be used for imported goods.




  What is the concept of 360 billion US dollars?

During Trump’s presidency, the United States imposed a total of approximately US$370 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, which covered almost all of China’s exports to the United States.

In 2020, Sino-US trade volume will reach 586.7 billion U.S. dollars, of which China’s exports to the U.S. will reach 451.8 billion U.S. dollars.

360 billion U.S. dollars is really not a small number! The United States is going to start the global buying, buying and buying model!

The United States prints money and then buys and buys it all over the world, spending all the money, and inflation is perfectly transferred to countries around the world.



  Biden sends out money, Americans Buy, Buy, Buy

According to data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the US industry trade organization, factory production and product sales in the United States soared in March. Its factory activity index rose from 60.8 in February to 64.7 in March, indicating that new commodity orders, output, inventory levels and commodity prices are all expanding.

According to US media analysis, this expansion is mainly due to the fact that most American consumers have received US$1,400 in stimulus funds issued by the government, and the demand in every major industry from the catering industry to the chemical industry is increasing.




Morgan Stanley said that American households have US$2.3 trillion in excess savings, and they may spend a lot of money to promote the growth of commodity spending.

The National Retail Fedderation (NRF) predicts that in 2021, retail sales (excluding car dealers, gas stations and restaurants) will increase by 6.5% to 8.2% over 2020, setting a new record in the past 17 years.

According to a survey conducted by the Bank of America, people who received stimulus checks increased their spending by 49% compared to the same week two years ago. Among them, furniture, online electronic products and clothing have benefited the most.

The McKinsey Global Institute's research shows that even if the stimulus check is not obtained, it will not affect the consumption of middle and high-income groups. The expenditure of this group is expected to rebound to the level before the epidemic between 2021 and 2022.

"Consumers are finally beginning to welcome the ongoing economic restart." said Robert Frick, a corporate economist at the U.S. Navy Federal Credit Union. "But what needs to be observed is how quickly service industries such as travel and leisure will grow. Speed ​​opening up to allow consumers to release their backlog of demand."

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also previously estimated that American households will use checks to buy goods and services, and the proceeds will be distributed globally. “The major trading partners of the United States will benefit from its demand spillovers” and the world economy will grow faster. More than 1 percentage point.
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